The draw for the Last 16 of the Champions League takes place on Monday and Liverpool fans are already looking forward to finding out their next European opponents.
At this stage of the competition, sides who won their group will face a runner-up from another group and vice versa. It’s important to note that teams can not be drawn against a side from their own country, nor can they be drawn against a side who they faced in the group stages.
What that means is that, unlike in the FA Cup draw where the chances of drawing any team are equal, the probability of facing certain clubs in the draw is actually weighted.
So, we know that Liverpool will face either Basel, Bayern Munich, Juventus, Porto, Real Madrid or Shakhtar Donetsk but what is the probability of being drawn against each club?
The most likely Last 16 ties for the Reds are with either Real Madrid or Juventus. There is a 18.8% chance that Jurgen Klopp’s side will be drawn to face the competition holders and the same can be said for the chances of them facing last season’s runners-up.
The next most likely ties are against either Basel or Shakhtar; there is a 15.9% chance of being drawn against either side.
Finally, the least likely draws for Liverpool are against Bayern Munich and Porto as the chances of being drawn against those sides is 15.3%.
So, the numbers say Liverpool are likely to be heading to Madrid or Turin in February, we’ll find out on Monday if that’s the case.