Sunday’s FA Cup semi-final finds Liverpool and Aston Villa colliding at a critical point for both sides. After a great run of form in the new year, Liverpool have had to regroup after crushing defeats to Arsenal and Manchester United. Meanwhile, Villa have been doggedly climbing out of the relegation battle.
With both teams looking to make up for recent slips, this match will likely shape each side’s end of season run in. The winner will gain even greater confidence, while the loser could find themselves in a freefall.
For Liverpool, their hopes of regaining a Champions League spot took a massive blow, but the prospects of silverware could ease a lot of pressure on manager Brendan Rodgers. No longer able to determine their own destiny for European play, the FA Cup provides one last platform for the Reds to seize control of their own fates.
In his third season, Rodgers planned for a trophy. Failing to secure one would put him on an ignoble list of managers that features Liverpool laughingstock Roy Hodgson.
Yet, Rodgers has been finding ways to tweak his side and compensate for a rash of injuries and suspensions, getting results despite the challenges. Continuing to changes the team’s shape and take advantage of the quality available may not be any more important this campaign than Sunday. And the personnel at his disposal may be best suited for the kind of match Villa is likely to play.
Since taking over the Villans, Tim Sherwood has found a way to get struggling striker Christian Benteke firing again. He has stabilised a teams that earlier looked an almost certainty to fall into the Championship. Not entirely out of fight for Premier League survival, a win Sunday could be exactly the kind of moment that could help propel them further from the drop zone.
For all his critics, Sherwood might be exactly the kind of short term solution a team struggling with confidence needs. The sheer passion of his over-the-top celebrations and unabashed touchline rallying cries can no doubt push a team towards greater self-belief in a single match. How long that act plays for players and whether he can maintain the positives is an open question.
Still, a Villa victory over Liverpool would be a major boost not only the Midlands side but also to Sherwood’s burgeoning managerial career.
Despite the gulf in the table and overall quality, in areas where this match is likely to break, like set-pieces, defensive errors, and individual duels, the teams are remarkably even statistically.
How the team’s set-up will prove decisive.
Liverpool’s defence will have their hands full with Benteke, who has been on a streak of strong form. Do not be surprised to see a back four, similar to the Newcastle match, with Martin Skrtel returning to the lineup in place of Dejan Lovren. With Alberto Moreno and Glen Johnson as fullbacks, it would be very easy for them to switch into wingbacks and flood the midfield, with Lucas dropping deeper to play as a third centre-half, especially if the Reds get a lead. This would give the defence a mix of experience, reliability, and attacking threat from deeper positions that may be necessary to break down what is likely to be a very deep and compact Villa defence.
Also, look for Steven Gerrard to come in off the bench. It may be the single most talked about decision of Rodgers’ three years, if they fail to win. However, given Gerrard’s lack of games and future in America, the gaffer has to play to win this match and prepare the ground for the skipper’s departure. He will find a way to substitute Gerrard for either Lucas or Joe Allen, depending on the score.
It is in attack where the most intriguing possibilities emerge. Whether Daniel Sturridge is fit or not is likely to be a late decision. However, in either case, it would not be surprising to see Raheem Sterling played wide left again, as well as Philippe Coutinho drifting in and out of a false nine position, regardless who lines up as the third forward, likely Jordan Ibe or Lazar Markovic to start. This will provide flexibility to use Sturridge or Mario Balotelli from the bench, as needed.
Rodgers is most likely to go with an overloaded midfield and wide pace up front, hoping to get on top of Villa early and dictate terms.
The challenge will be inviting Villa to attack in a way that lures them out of a deep defensive posture. However, given Sherwood’s lack of genuine tactical savvy, the temptation to sit back and counter attack will likely expose the spaces needed for the Reds to flood forward in a quicker, technical fashion.
As usual, the key will be where the goals will come from for Liverpool. It will undoubtedly be a mix of distance shooting from the midfielders and close, quick combination play in the box. Liverpool are far better at shooting from distance and score nearly twice as many goals inside the area (39 to Villa’s 22). Plus, Villa have been similarly more porous inside the penalty area, yielding 39 goals to Liverpool’s 29.
It all makes for a very tight match in the early going. If Liverpool concede the first goal, it will be very difficult for them to break down Villa’s defence. However, if the Liverpool score the first goal, it could be a Reds rampage and the battering that supporters have been waiting to see all season.
The pressure is surely on as the two sides kick off at Wembley, but the Reds have more quality and more to gain from the victory. This should be the match that helps Brendan Rodgers edge a bit closer to his first trophy.
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