Liverpool is on the verge of confirming their place in the 2026/27 Champions League, with Opta’s latest projections giving the Reds a staggering 97.9% chance of securing a top-five finish.
While Arne Slot’s second season at the helm has been plagued by inconsistency, a return to the Champions League remains firmly within reach, even with a staggering ten Premier League defeats already on the board.
The current reality stands in stark contrast to the pre-season hype; following a blockbuster summer window that saw Florian Wirtz and Alexander Isak arrive at Anfield, the expectation was not merely “top four,” but a historic charge toward back-to-back Premier League titles.
Arne Slot has managed to steady the ship. While the title may be out of reach, the priority has shifted to the Champions League, and Liverpool took a massive step toward that goal by grinding out a 3-1 win in a fixture that could have easily seen their season unravel against Crystal Palace on Saturday.
Minus Daniel Munoz‘s controversial Palace goal, Liverpool were good value for their 3-1 success at Anfield, with the Reds now eight points ahead of Brighton and Hove Albion in sixth position.
Even with stand-in goalkeeper Freddie Woodman between the sticks, Slot’s men didn’t fall to an unwanted defeat, as it has now become apparent how many more points are needed before they are officially secure in safeguarding their Champions League status.
How many more points do Liverpool need?
Liverpool only has four more Premier League games left until the 2025/26 season is officially wrapped up.
They could have to make do without Mohamed Salah for some crunch games to come against Manchester United and Aston Villa, though, after he pulled up with a hamstring concern in the second half against Crystal Palace.
From their final four games, Liverpool need to pick up six points to mathematically secure their Champions League status, with games against their North West rivals Manchester United, Chelsea, Unai Emery’s Aston Villa, and Brentford seeing out the season.
Liverpool’s Final Four Fixtures (2025/26 Season):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Time (GMT) |
| Sunday May 3 | Manchester United | Old Trafford | 15:30 |
| Saturday May 9 | Chelsea | Anfield | 12:30 |
| Sunday May 17 | Aston Villa | Villa Park | 15:00 |
| Sunday May 24 | Brentford | Anfield | 16:00 |
This is a difficult run of fixtures, arguably, with Michael Carrick’s men and Villa inside the top five with Liverpool, but the points total needed could be slashed to five if Carrick’s side overcomes Brentford at Old Trafford on Monday.
The Opta supercomputer certainly believes Slot’s side will be participating in Europe’s elite competition, again, next season, with Opta giving the Reds a 97.9% chance of qualifying for the Champions League.
The performances will need to keep being as professional and as slick as the Palace victory, with Liverpool not letting the controversial Munoz moment get the better of them, as back-to-back victories were secured.
Slot will need the wins to keep coming
Liverpool could fall back on Anfield being a fortress in attempting to secure a Champions League spot in style, with two wins on their own turf against Chelsea and Brentford possibly sealing their fate.
Likewise, the Reds do have a good away record at Old Trafford in recent years, with a 3-0 victory picked up in 2024, helping the Reds lift their 20th Premier League title.
They’ll also want to emphatically exorcise their demons of the 2-1 defeat earlier in the season when playing their arch rivals, when the Merseyside giants were stuck in a horrible run of form.
Arne Slot will also be banking on Alexander Isak to maintain his clinical edge, especially with the prospect of Mohamed Salah being sidelined.
The £125m Swede finally notched his first Premier League goal at Anfield since returning from the untimely broken leg injury he suffered in December, as a sharp, instinctive finish was buried past Dean Henderson that proved decisive in the 3-1 victory.
For the Anfield faithful, there is a palpable sense of relief in knowing that Champions League qualification remains entirely within their own hands. In a campaign that has frequently felt disjointed and disorienting, having a clear objective provides a much-needed sense of purpose.
The pressure is now on Slot and his squad to hold their nerve with May looming as the defining month for their European ambitions; the Reds cannot afford to let this encouraging position slip away.
